No US Strikes Before Midterms, but Oil and 5.2% Yields Stay Chained

Washington just told markets it will not strike Iran before the November 3 midterms, and that is a smaller relief than it looks: Iran is widening the tanker campaign beyond Hormuz, the blockade stays, and oil is still pricing roughly $100 crude with 10-year yields near 5.2%.

On October 8, President Trump posted that the US would not attack Iran "at any time prior to the Midterm Elections," while saying the naval blockade "will remain in full force and effect" (CBS News live coverage). That followed reports that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options. Iran's foreign minister said messages are still moving through intermediaries and that Tehran would answer the US reply to its "seven-day plan" within days.

The same 24 hours brought the escalation. Euronews reports that a tanker was hit about 51 nautical miles off Qatar on Wednesday, the first attack in that area in more than six months, and that a second tanker was on fire off Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. Neither was officially claimed, but IRGC-linked outlets implied Tehran had widened operations beyond the strait.

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