The Bond Market Is Repricing Everywhere, Not Just in Oil

The most important market story this week is not oil. It is that the price of long-term money is being repriced everywhere at once, and France, AI-era bond issuance and a hawkish Fed are all feeding the same pipe.

On Wednesday, October 7, the 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36%, its highest since 2002, and the 30-year reached about 5.73%, also the highest since 2002, according to NBC News. Then the market did something revealing: a $39 billion 10-year auction cleared at 5.3%, the highest for a 10-year sale since November 2000, and buyers showed up. Yields retreated to roughly 5.27-5.28% by the close (NBC and Edward Jones agree within a basis point; Alpha Vantage's daily series shows 5.27% for October 6, and 5.31% on October 5).

Stocks wobbled rather than broke. The Dow closed down about 0.6% per NBC, and Edward Jones described US equities as modestly lower a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set records. Brent slipped about 0.5% but stayed above $100.

Read the full article on Medium →