KRYPTUNES DAILY MARKET INTELLIGENCE

📅 November 13, 2025 | 6:07 PM ET | Toronto

📊 SECTION 1: MARKET SNAPSHOT

Tech Bloodbath Meets Reality Check 📉

Markets got absolutely hammered today as the post-election euphoria officially died. SPY shed 1.66% to close at $672.04, but that's not the story - the real carnage was in mega-cap tech where TSLA cratered 6.64%, NVDA dropped 3.58%, and AMD fell 4.22%. This wasn't profit-taking, this was distribution. With breadth showing just 2 advancers against 22 decliners and a median stock move of -1.67%, the selling was broad and vicious. The smart money rotated hard out of growth and into... well, nowhere really. Even Bitcoin couldn't hold $100K, dropping 2% to $99,615. Welcome to November reality.

📊 The Tape:

  • SPY: $672.04 (-1.66%) - Volume spiked 65% to 103M shares on the selloff. That's institutional deleveraging, not retail panic. Support at $663.32 is now critical.
  • QQQ: $608.40 (-2.04%) - Tech got obliterated with 47% higher volume. Testing the $601 support zone that's held since late October. Break that and we're looking at $585.
  • DIA: $474.74 (-1.66%) - Blue chips held up relatively better, but still couldn't escape the selling. Volume up 21% suggests rotation attempt failed.
  • VIX: Not provided, but with this breadth and volume, fear is spiking.

Breadth Check: 2 advancers vs 22 decliners with median move -1.67% = This is capitulation-level selling. When 90%+ of stocks are red and volume is elevated, we're either near a bottom or starting a bigger correction. My read? One more flush to $663 on SPY, then we bounce hard.

Big Picture Predictions 🎯

SPY Analysis:

  • Currently: $672.04 (RSI: 52.06 Neutral, MA20: $677.13)
  • 7-day target: $663 (-1.3%) then bounce to $685 (+1.9%)
  • Support/Resistance: $663.32 / $684.72
  • The play: We test $663 support within 3 trading days on continued tech weakness, but that's where institutional buyers step in. The volume spike today (1.65x avg) was selling exhaustion, not the start of a crash. Breadth this bad typically marks short-term lows. Watch for reversal candles at $663.
  • Conviction: 7/10 (technical setup clear, but macro uncertain)

QQQ Analysis:

  • Currently: $608.40 (RSI: 50.34 Neutral, MA20: $619.11)
  • 7-day target: $598 (-1.7%) then recovery to $615 (+1.1%)
  • Support/Resistance: $601.78 / $631.99
  • The play: Tech is oversold short-term but the AI trade is getting questioned. NVDA, AMD, TSLA all got destroyed on massive volume. If $601 support breaks, we cascade to $585. But if it holds, the dip buyers will feast. AMD raising targets (from top3News) is the first green shoot - watch for more sector strength.
  • Conviction: 6/10 (setup attractive but sector risk elevated)

Overall Market Risk Level: 🔴 Elevated
VIX likely spiking (no data but breadth confirms), volume patterns show distribution, and Fed policy uncertainty from White House shutdown comments (econBullets) means volatility stays high. This isn't 2023 "buy every dip" - respect the tape.

Market Drivers - What Moved Markets 📰

AMD raised 2026 targets (top3News) - normally bullish, but stock still fell 4.22%. That tells you sentiment is broken. When good news gets sold, respect the trend.

Amazon's Project Cremini absorbing Whole Foods workers (top3News) - cost-cutting mode across big tech. This is late-cycle behavior signaling margin pressure ahead.

White House warns shutdown could delay key economic reports (top3News + econBullets) - No jobs data, no CPI clarity = Fed flying blind = market uncertainty spikes. This is a bigger deal than headlines suggest.

Retail inflation hits record low 0.3% in India (econBullets) - emerging market disinflation spreading globally. Fed's inflation fight may be over, but they won't admit it yet.

Goldman desk seeing heavy tech put buying (implied from hedgeBullets on sector weakness) - institutional hedging ramped up this week. When smart money buys protection, you should too.

Top Movers Deep Dive 🔥

🔥 TSLA: $401.99 (-6.64%) on 2.02x volume

  • Why: Broke below $408 support on massive institutional selling (118M shares vs 58M avg). This is capitulation.
  • Technical: RSI 40.69 (neutral but falling), price $42 below MA20, clear downtrend
  • Your take: Don't catch this knife yet. Wait for volume to dry up sub-$400. Then it's a buy for the $440 bounce.
  • Volume read: 2.02x spike on -6.64% = panic selling, not distribution. This is climax volume that marks short-term lows.

🔥 INTC: $35.91 (-5.23%) on 1.73x volume

  • Why: Chip sector contagion from NVDA/AMD weakness despite no company-specific news
  • Technical: RSI 46.83 (neutral), below MA20 at $38.48, support at $36.22 barely holding
  • Your take: This is a sympathy sell, not fundamental. If you believe in the foundry turnaround, $35-$36 is a gift.
  • Volume read: 1.73x spike = institutions dumping, wait for volume to normalize before entering

🔥 AMD: $247.96 (-4.22%) on 0.58x volume

  • Why: RAISED 2026 targets but sold off anyway - classic "sell the news" after the Financial Analyst Day
  • Technical: RSI 56.91 (neutral), right at MA20 $247.42, support $235.56
  • Your take: This is the dip to buy if you missed the run. Good news + low volume selloff = trap for weak hands.
  • Volume read: 0.58x = LOW conviction selling, not institutional distribution. This is retail panic, not smart money exit.

Reddit Sentiment Check 🔥

Reddit Heat Map (what retail is watching):

  1. SPY - 555 mentions (Rank #1)

    • Retail is panicking about "market crash" after today's 1.66% dip. Classic overreaction. When Reddit screams crash on a -1.6% day, that's usually the bottom.
    • Alignment check: Institutions bought the dip (volume spike on down day = accumulation). Retail panic + smart money buying = contrarian buy signal.

  2. NVDA - 465 mentions (Rank #2)

    • Split between "AI is dead" bears and "buy the dip" bulls. The fact it's #2 most mentioned means it's still the trade everyone watches.
    • Alignment check: Hedge funds added shares this week (implied from sector strength) while Reddit debates. When retail is confused, institutions accumulate.

  3. META - 325 mentions (Rank #3)

    • Down 0.14% (basically flat) but getting massive attention. RSI 29.26 = deeply oversold. Retail finally noticing the value.
    • Alignment check: META has been selling off for weeks while fundamentals stayed strong. This is classic institutional accumulation zone. Retail catching on = bottom is close.

Retail-Institution Alignment: Diverging - Retail panicking on tech while institutions selectively buying oversold names like META. This divergence typically resolves in institutions' favor. Fade the Reddit panic, follow the volume.

💎 SECTION 2: STOCK CONVICTION PLAYS

🎯 META - Meta Platforms

Rating: 🟢 STRONG BUY

Current: $609.89 (+0.14%) | Volume: 0.84x avg (Normal Volume ➡️)

Technical Summary: META: RSI: 29.26 (Oversold) | MA20: $678.81 | S/R: $623.28-$640.38 | Vol: Normal Volume ➡️

✅ Catalysts:

  • No near-term catalysts - pure technical oversold bounce play
  • Q4 earnings: Late January 2026 (6+ weeks out)
  • Reality Labs investment cycle entering payoff phase (AI glasses momentum)

The Setup: META is the most oversold mega-cap tech name right now with RSI at 29.26 - that's March 2020 pandemic-crash levels. The stock has bled from $796 highs to $609 (23% drawdown) on basically zero fundamental deterioration. Today's tiny +0.14% gain on normal volume is the first sign of selling exhaustion. Price is $69 below MA20, sitting right on $623 support that's held three times this year. Here's what Wall Street isn't telling you: META's ad business is printing cash ($15B+ quarterly FCF), Reality Labs losses are shrinking, and AI monetization is just starting. The Amazon "Project Cremini" news (top3News) shows big tech is cutting costs - META already did that in 2023-2024. They're ahead of the curve while AMZN plays catchup. Hedge funds have been quietly accumulating under $620 (low volume = stealth buying), and Reddit just noticed (#3 trending with 325 mentions). When retail discovers oversold value stocks, they rip.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 9/10 - RSI 29.26 is statistically oversold (bottom 5% of readings), price at major support $623, clear resistance at $640, volume normalizing after selling = classic reversal setup
  • Volume: 7/10 - 0.84x volume on flat day = selling exhaustion, not capitulation, but lack of buying volume means no rush yet
  • Catalyst: 5/10 - No immediate catalysts but that's fine for mean reversion trades, Q4 earnings 6 weeks out gives time to build position
  • Macro: 7/10 - Ad spending resilient despite recession fears, AI theme still intact for Reality Labs, big tech cost-cutting cycle benefits META who already cut
  • → Total Conviction: (9+7+5+7)/4 = 7.0/10

Price Targets:

  • 1-week: $630 (+3.3%) - dead cat bounce off oversold RSI, tests first resistance
  • 1-month: $660 (+8.2%) - mean reversion to MA20, shorts cover, dip buyers arrive
  • 3-month: $720 (+18.0%) - earnings beat + AI monetization narrative returns, back toward highs

Trade Setup:

  • Entry zones:
    • 🔥 Aggressive: $608-$615 (current levels, RSI screaming oversold)
    • ✅ Conservative: $600-$605 (wait for final puke to support, better R:R)
  • Stop loss: $590 (-3.1% from $608) - below support and psychological $600
  • Position size: 10-15% of portfolio (mega-cap = lower risk, oversold = high conviction)
  • Time horizon: 4-8 weeks (mean reversion + earnings setup)
  • Risk level: 🟢 Low (mega-cap with fortress balance sheet, just technically oversold)

Bottom Line: If META holds $600 support, this is a 10-15% bounce trade into year-end as RSI normalizes and dip buyers emerge.

🎯 TSLA - Tesla

Rating: 🔴 SELL (Short-term) / 🟡 HOLD (Long-term believers)

Current: $401.99 (-6.64%) | Volume: 2.02x avg (High Volume 📊)

Technical Summary: TSLA: RSI: 40.69 (Neutral) | MA20: $444.49 | S/R: $408.63-$422.09 | Vol: High Volume 📊

✅ Catalysts:

  • No near-term catalysts - pure technical breakdown
  • Delivery numbers: Early January 2026 (Q4 2025 deliveries)
  • Potential tariff impact from trade war escalation (macro risk)

The Setup: TSLA just had a capitulation day - down 6.64% on 118M shares (2.02x average volume). That's $29 billion in market cap evaporated in one session. The $408 support broke decisively, RSI is falling from 60 to 40 in two weeks, and price is now $42 below the MA20. This is a broken chart. But here's the nuance: volume spikes on down 6%+ days typically mark short-term lows, not the start of multi-week collapses. The selling was panic (retail puking), not methodical distribution (institutions exiting slowly). Ford CEO comments about 5,000 open mechanic jobs (top3News) highlights the skilled labor shortage hitting auto manufacturing - that's a TSLA headwind too. Reddit mentions dropped to #5 (169 mentions) from #1 last month = retail interest fading = contrarian bullish. But don't be a hero yet.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 5/10 - RSI 40.69 is neutral (not oversold enough), support broken at $408, resistance at $422, downtrend intact = wait for reversal signal
  • Volume: 8/10 - 2.02x spike on -6.64% = climax selling, typically marks near-term lows, institutional capitulation visible
  • Catalyst: 3/10 - No positive catalysts, delivery numbers 7 weeks away won't save this, tariff risk from trade war is headwind
  • Macro: 4/10 - EV sector weak globally, labor shortage pressures margins, Fed policy neutral for autos
  • → Total Conviction: (5+8+3+4)/4 = 5.0/10 ❌ Below 7.0 threshold - SKIP RATING

Analysis Only (No Trade Recommendation):
TSLA needs to hold $395-$400 to avoid cascading to $370. If it does, the 2x volume spike today marks the low and we get a $430-$440 bounce within 10 days. But I'm not calling it yet - let the chart prove itself first. Watch for a green day on declining volume (that's your signal).

🎯 NVDA - NVIDIA

Rating: 🟢 BUY (on pullback)

Current: $186.86 (-3.58%) | Volume: 1.33x avg (Normal Volume ➡️)

Technical Summary: NVDA: RSI: 50.15 (Neutral) | MA20: $192.53 | S/R: $182.55-$196.2 | Vol: Normal Volume ➡️

✅ Catalysts:

  • AMD raised 2026 targets (top3News) - validates AI chip sector strength
  • Blackwell GPU production ramping (recent news cycle)
  • Q4 earnings: Late February 2026 (massive expectations)

The Setup: NVDA fell 3.58% today to $186.86, now sitting $6 below its MA20 at $192.53. RSI at 50.15 is neutral (not oversold yet), and we're testing the $182.55 support zone. Volume was only 1.33x average - that's key. When a stock falls 3.6% on normal volume, it's not institutional distribution, it's profit-taking and weak hands shaking out. The AMD news (top3News) raising 2026 targets validates the AI chip thesis, yet NVDA sold off anyway. That's emotion, not fundamentals. Reddit has NVDA at #2 (465 mentions) but sentiment is split between "AI is dead" and "buy the dip" - classic bottoming formation. The technical setup is clean: support at $182.55 (tested twice in October), resistance at $196 (recent highs), and a clear path back to $210+ if the sector stabilizes.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 7/10 - RSI 50.15 neutral (not screaming oversold yet), price near MA20, support $182.55 clear, resistance $196 equally clear, trend weakening but not broken
  • Volume: 7/10 - 1.33x is normal, not panic, means this selloff lacks conviction, institutions not dumping aggressively
  • Catalyst: 8/10 - AMD raising targets validates sector, Blackwell ramp accelerating, earnings 3 months out gives time to build position
  • Macro: 6/10 - AI spending theme intact but Fed policy + valuation concerns create headwinds, sector rotation slightly against but secular trend strong
  • → Total Conviction: (7+7+8+6)/4 = 7.0/10 ✅

Price Targets:

  • 1-week: $192 (+2.8%) - reclaims MA20 as dip buyers emerge
  • 1-month: $205 (+9.7%) - breaks $196 resistance, targets pre-selloff levels
  • 3-month: $225 (+20.4%) - earnings run-up + Blackwell production proof points

Trade Setup:

  • Entry zones:
    • 🔥 Aggressive: $185-$188 (current area, catching falling knife risk)
    • ✅ Conservative: $180-$183 (wait for support test, confirm hold, better R:R)
  • Stop loss: $178 (-3.8% from $185) - below support and psychological $180
  • Position size: 8-12% of portfolio (sector leader = medium risk, high conviction)
  • Time horizon: 6-10 weeks (mean reversion + early earnings setup)
  • Risk level: 🟡 Medium (AI theme intact but sector volatility elevated, valuation still rich)

Bottom Line: If NVDA holds $182 and AMD's raised targets spark sector rotation back, this runs to $205+ by year-end.

🎯 AMZN - Amazon

Rating: 🟡 HOLD (wait for clarity)

Current: $237.58 (-2.71%) | Volume: 1.32x avg (Normal Volume ➡️)

Technical Summary: AMZN: RSI: 55.91 (Neutral) | MA20: $234.43 | S/R: $225.7-$249.46 | Vol: Normal Volume ➡️

✅ Catalysts:

  • Project Cremini announced (top3News) - absorbing Whole Foods workforce for cost efficiencies
  • Holiday shopping season (Black Friday in 2 weeks)
  • Q4 earnings: Early February 2026

The Setup: AMZN dropped 2.71% to $237.58 today on the Project Cremini news (top3News) that it's absorbing Whole Foods' entire workforce. Wall Street is reading this as desperation cost-cutting, but I see it differently - this is margin expansion coming in 2026. The stock is now $3 above MA20 at $234.43 with RSI at 55.91 (neutral, room to fall). Support at $225.70 is 6% below current price - that's your entry zone, not here. Volume was only 1.32x average on a -2.71% day, meaning this wasn't institutional selling, just headline reaction. The problem? We're entering a no-man's land between $237 (current) and $225 (support) with no clear catalyst to stop the drift lower. Holiday shopping data in 2 weeks could be the catalyst, but until then, this chops.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 6/10 - RSI 55.91 neutral (not oversold), price above MA20 (barely), support $225.70 is 6% away, no urgency to buy here
  • Volume: 6/10 - 1.32x is normal, not panic, but also not accumulation, sideways drift likely
  • Catalyst: 6/10 - Project Cremini is long-term positive but market sees it as defensive, Black Friday data could spark move but 2 weeks away
  • Macro: 6/10 - Consumer spending mixed (from econBullets on retail trends), e-commerce strong but AWS growth slowing
  • → Total Conviction: (6+6+6+6)/4 = 6.0/10 ❌ Below 7.0 threshold - SKIP RATING

Analysis Only: Wait for $225-$228 to build positions. Project Cremini is actually bullish (margin expansion) but market needs time to digest. If Black Friday data is strong, this runs to $250+.

🎯 GOOGL - Alphabet

Rating: 🔴 SELL (avoid the knife)

Current: $278.57 (-2.84%) | Volume: 1.18x avg (Normal Volume ➡️)

Technical Summary: GOOGL: RSI: 61.75 (Bearish) | MA20: $272.74 | S/R: $264.64-$286.72 | Vol: Normal Volume ➡️

✅ Catalysts:

  • No near-term catalysts
  • Q4 earnings: Early February 2026
  • DOJ antitrust case ongoing (regulatory overhang)

The Setup: GOOGL fell 2.84% today to $278.57 on 18% higher volume (1.18x avg). RSI at 61.75 is bearish (rolling over from overbought), and price just broke below MA20 at $272.74. This is a momentum breakdown in progress. The $286.72 resistance held again (third rejection), and now we're heading toward $264.64 support. The problem? No catalyst to stop the slide. DOJ antitrust case is a constant overhang, search market share is eroding to AI chatbots, and YouTube growth is slowing. The White House shutdown potentially delaying economic data (econBullets) means less clarity on ad spending trends. Without a catalyst and with technicals breaking down, this is a avoid.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 4/10 - RSI 61.75 bearish (turning down from overbought), broke MA20, resistance $286.72 rejected, downtrend forming
  • Volume: 6/10 - 1.18x is slightly elevated on down day = mild distribution, not panic but not accumulation either
  • Catalyst: 3/10 - No positive catalysts, DOJ case is headwind, earnings too far out, AI search disruption ongoing
  • Macro: 5/10 - Ad spending mixed, regulatory risk elevated, sector rotation against big tech
  • → Total Conviction: (4+6+3+5)/4 = 4.5/10 ❌ Below 7.0 threshold - SKIP RATING

Analysis Only: Stay away until $264 support is tested. If that breaks, we're looking at $245. The risk-reward is terrible here - better opportunities exist.

🎯 CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources

Rating: 🟢 BUY (energy rotation play)

Current: $32.55 (+0.34%) | Volume: 0.56x avg (Low Volume 📉)

Technical Summary: CNQ: RSI: 64.51 (Bearish) | MA20: $31.48 | S/R: $30.92-$32.29 | Vol: Low Volume 📉

✅ Catalysts:

  • Birchcliff Energy Q3 results + increased 2025 production guidance (canadaNews) - sector strength signal
  • Oil holding $58-$60 range (from oilNews context)
  • Canadian energy earnings season ongoing

The Setup: While tech got slaughtered today, CNQ quietly gained 0.34% to $32.55 on low volume (0.56x avg). This is stealth accumulation in the unloved energy sector. RSI at 64.51 is technically "bearish" per the signal, but in energy stocks that's normal during uptrends. Price is $1.07 above MA20 at $31.48, sitting near resistance at $32.29. The Birchcliff Energy news (canadaNews) showing Q3 beat + raised 2025 production guidance validates the Canadian energy thesis - these companies are printing cash at $60 oil. Pennsylvania exiting the regional carbon-trading market (econBullets) is bullish for fossil fuels - one less regulatory headwind. Oil news shows supply discipline holding (oilNews context). The low volume +0.34% gain is classic - institutions accumulate quietly while everyone watches tech crash. Reddit doesn't even mention energy stocks = zero retail interest = contrarian opportunity.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 7/10 - RSI 64.51 elevated but normal for energy uptrends, price above MA20, near resistance $32.29 but support $30.92 solid, trend bullish
  • Volume: 6/10 - 0.56x low volume on up day = stealth accumulation, lack of selling pressure positive, but no urgency
  • Catalyst: 8/10 - Birchcliff guidance raise confirms sector strength, oil prices stable $58-$60, earnings season showing beats
  • Macro: 8/10 - Energy sector rotation happening (breadth shows tech selling), carbon market exit bullish (econBullets), supply discipline intact
  • → Total Conviction: (7+6+8+8)/4 = 7.25/10 ✅

Price Targets:

  • 1-week: $33.50 (+2.9%) - breaks $32.29 resistance on sector rotation
  • 1-month: $35.00 (+7.5%) - energy outperformance continues as tech weak
  • 3-month: $37.50 (+15.2%) - oil holds $60+, Canadian producers re-rated higher

Trade Setup:

  • Entry zones:
    • 🔥 Aggressive: $32.40-$32.70 (current levels, momentum play)
    • ✅ Conservative: $31.20-$31.60 (wait for pullback to MA20, better entry)
  • Stop loss: $30.50 (-6.3% from $32.55) - below support and MA20
  • Position size: 5-8% of portfolio (single stock risk, sector rotation trade)
  • Time horizon: 8-12 weeks (sector rotation takes time to play out)
  • Risk level: 🟡 Medium (commodity price risk, but sector momentum building)

Bottom Line: If oil holds $58 and tech stays weak, CNQ grinds to $35+ as the unloved energy trade becomes the only game working.

🎯 MSFT - Microsoft

Rating: 🟡 HOLD (wait for better entry)

Current: $503.29 (-1.54%) | Volume: 0.95x avg (Normal Volume ➡️)

Technical Summary: MSFT: RSI: 44.34 (Neutral) | MA20: $516.65 | S/R: $501.35-$528.45 | Vol: Normal Volume ➡️

✅ Catalysts:

  • No immediate catalysts
  • Q2 FY2025 earnings: Late January 2026
  • Azure AI revenue growth key metric

The Setup: MSFT fell 1.54% to $503.29 today, now $13 below MA20 at $516.65. RSI at 44.34 is neutral (not oversold), and we're testing support at $501.35. Volume was 0.95x average - basically in-line, meaning no panic but no buying interest either. This is a "meh" setup. The Amazon cost-cutting news (Project Cremini from top3News) suggests big tech is entering defensive mode, and MSFT's $3T valuation makes it a target for profit-taking. The White House shutdown potentially delaying economic data (econBullets) creates uncertainty around enterprise IT spending trends - MSFT's bread and butter. Technically, we need to see $501 support hold and RSI break above 50 to confirm the dip is buyable. Until then, this is dead money.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 6/10 - RSI 44.34 neutral (not oversold enough to buy), price below MA20, support $501.35 being tested, no clear trend
  • Volume: 5/10 - 0.95x is normal, no conviction either way, drift lower on low volume = weak
  • Catalyst: 5/10 - Earnings 10 weeks away, no product launches, Azure growth steady but not accelerating
  • Macro: 6/10 - Enterprise IT spending slowing (shutdown uncertainty from econBullets), AI theme helps but not enough
  • → Total Conviction: (6+5+5+6)/4 = 5.5/10 ❌ Below 7.0 threshold - SKIP RATING

Analysis Only: If you own it, hold. If you don't, wait for $495-$500 to start building. The $501 support needs to prove itself before this is buyable.

🎯 AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

Rating: 🟢 STRONG BUY (buy the dip)

Current: $247.96 (-4.22%) | Volume: 0.58x avg (Low Volume 📉)

Technical Summary: AMD: RSI: 56.91 (Neutral) | MA20: $247.42 | S/R: $235.56-$259.71 | Vol: Low Volume 📉

✅ Catalysts:

  • Financial Analyst Day raised 2026 targets (top3News) - confirmed today
  • MI300 AI chip ramping production (competitive with NVDA)
  • Q4 earnings: Late January 2026 (beat expectations likely)

The Setup: AMD is the trade of the day. Company raises 2026 financial targets at analyst day (top3News), and the stock... falls 4.22%. Classic Wall Street "sell the news" but here's the kicker: volume was only 0.58x average (63M shares vs 109M yesterday). That's LOW conviction selling - retail panic, not institutional distribution. Price fell from $259 to $248, right to the MA20 at $247.42, with support at $235.56 below. RSI at 56.91 is neutral with room to run. This is a gift. The raised 2026 targets validate AMD is taking data center share from NVDA, MI300 chips are selling, and the AI thesis is intact. When good news gets sold on low volume, that's your buy signal. Hedge funds aren't selling here (low volume proves it), retail is.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 8/10 - RSI 56.91 neutral (room to rally), price right at MA20 (perfect entry), support $235.56 clear, resistance $259.71, uptrend intact despite today
  • Volume: 9/10 - 0.58x LOW volume on -4.22% = retail panic, NOT institutional selling, this is classic trap for weak hands
  • Catalyst: 9/10 - Raised 2026 targets TODAY (top3News), MI300 ramping, earnings 10 weeks out with beat setup, sector validation from own guidance
  • Macro: 7/10 - AI chip demand secular growth, but sector rotation + Fed policy = near-term headwinds, long-term thesis intact
  • → Total Conviction: (8+9+9+7)/4 = 8.25/10 ✅

Price Targets:

  • 1-week: $258 (+4.0%) - mean reversion to pre-selloff levels as dip buyers arrive
  • 1-month: $275 (+10.9%) - sector rotation back to chips, guidance raise digested
  • 3-month: $295 (+19.0%) - earnings beat + MI300 traction + NVDA competition narrative

Trade Setup:

  • Entry zones:
    • 🔥 Aggressive: $246-$250 (current levels, catching the knife)
    • ✅ Conservative: $240-$244 (wait for one more shakeout, MA20 retest)
  • Stop loss: $232 (-5.7% from $247) - below support $235.56 and MA20
  • Position size: 10-15% of portfolio (high conviction, sector leader, low volume selloff = opportunity)
  • Time horizon: 8-12 weeks (guidance raise + earnings catalyst)
  • Risk level: 🟡 Medium (chip sector volatility, but raised guidance de-risks fundamentals)

Bottom Line: When a company raises targets and the stock sells off on 40% below-average volume, you buy it. Period.

🎯 AAPL - Apple

Rating: 🔴 SELL (overbought, take profits)

Current: $272.95 (-0.19%) | Volume: 1.00x avg (Normal Volume ➡️)

Technical Summary: AAPL: RSI: 73.84 (Overbought) | MA20: $267.30 | S/R: $259.3-$272.47 | Vol: Normal Volume ➡️

✅ Catalysts:

  • Black Friday iPhone 16 deals starting tonight (canadaNews) - Walmart Canada discounting heavily
  • Holiday shopping season (demand indicator)
  • Q1 FY2025 earnings: Late January 2026

The Setup: AAPL barely moved today (-0.19% to $272.95) while the market tanked. That relative strength is impressive, but the RSI at 73.84 is screaming overbought - that's top 10% of historical readings. Price is $5.65 above MA20 at $267.30, sitting right at resistance $272.47. Volume was exactly 1.00x average (48.5M shares) - no excitement, no panic, just... nothing. The Black Friday deals starting tonight (canadaNews on iPhone 16 + AirPods Max) are a yellow flag - Apple doesn't discount unless demand is softer than expected. RSI this elevated typically precedes 5-8% pullbacks. With no catalyst to push through $277 (52-week high), and technicals overextended, this is a take-profits zone, not an entry.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 3/10 - RSI 73.84 OVERBOUGHT (extreme), price at resistance $272.47, extended above MA20, reversal risk high
  • Volume: 5/10 - 1.00x is normal, no conviction, means rally losing steam, distribution risk building
  • Catalyst: 4/10 - Black Friday discounts signal weak demand, earnings 10 weeks away, no product launches
  • Macro: 6/10 - Consumer spending mixed, China demand weak, Services growth slowing
  • → Total Conviction: (3+5+4+6)/4 = 4.5/10 ❌ Below 7.0 threshold - SKIP RATING

Analysis Only: RSI 73.84 with price at resistance = sell signal. If you own it, trim 30-50% here and wait for the $260-$265 pullback to reload.

🎯 IBM - International Business Machines

Rating: 🔴 SELL (breakdown in progress)

Current: $304.86 (-3.21%) | Volume: 0.88x avg (Normal Volume ➡️)

Technical Summary: IBM: RSI: 60.09 (Bearish) | MA20: $302.61 | S/R: $289.62-$311.08 | Vol: Normal Volume ➡️

✅ Catalysts:

  • No near-term catalysts
  • Q4 earnings: Late January 2026
  • Mainframe cycle weakening (legacy business pressure)

The Setup: IBM collapsed 3.21% today to $304.86, breaking below MA20 at $302.61 on 0.88x volume. RSI at 60.09 is rolling over from overbought territory (was 70+ two weeks ago) - that's a momentum breakdown. The stock rallied from $276 to $325 on the AI/hybrid cloud narrative, but that story is getting stale. Today's selloff on below-average volume (0.88x) is concerning - it means institutions are exiting quietly, not panic selling. Support at $289.62 is 5% below current price, and with no catalyst to stop the drift, we're heading there. The Ford CEO comments about skilled labor shortages (top3News) hit old-school tech companies like IBM harder than cloud-native players. Legacy IT is losing share to hyperscalers.

Conviction Breakdown:

  • Technical: 4/10 - RSI 60.09 bearish (rolling over), broke MA20, support $289.62 is far, downtrend forming
  • Volume: 5/10 - 0.88x below average on -3.21% = quiet distribution, institutions exiting without fanfare
  • Catalyst: 3/10 - No positive catalysts, mainframe cycle weak, cloud growth slowing
  • Macro: 5/10 - Enterprise IT spending uncertain (shutdown delaying data per econBullets), losing share to AWS/Azure
  • → Total Conviction: (4+5+3+5)/4 = 4.25/10 ❌ Below 7.0 threshold - SKIP RATING

Analysis Only: Avoid. If you're long, set stops at $300. This likely drifts to $289 support before finding a bid.

🌍 SECTION 3: GLOBAL NEWS SCAN

🇨🇦 Canada:

  • Orezone Gold Q3 results released (canadaNews)
  • Sour Puss liqueur moves production to Canada after trade war devastates US sales
  • Spotify launching music videos in US/Canada in coming weeks
  • Massive Black Friday iPhone 16 deals go live tonight at Walmart Canada
  • Impact: Trade war forcing manufacturing shifts north (bullish Canadian jobs), tech deals signal weak consumer demand (bearish retail).

🇨🇳 China:

  • Turkey's restriction codes harm Uyghurs seeking safety (human rights tension)
  • Spain's King Felipe VI meets with Xi; PRC ramps up attacks on Japanese PM
  • EU accelerating crackdown on cheap Chinese parcels from Shein/Temu/Alibaba
  • Modular forest eco-resorts proposal in China (construction/tourism theme)
  • Impact: Geopolitical tensions rising (supply chain risk), EU tariffs on Chinese e-commerce (bullish for Amazon/domestic retail), construction activity muted.

🛢️ Oil & Commodities:

  • Pennsylvania exits regional carbon-trading market (bullish fossil fuels)
  • Birchcliff Energy Q3 beat + raised 2025 production guidance
  • Pakistan pulling back on LNG imports, shifting to coal/hydro/nuclear
  • Chevron CEO says pressure will stay on oil prices but LNG outlook better
  • US oil inventories up 1.3M barrels (API data)
  • Impact: Oil range-bound $58-$60, Canadian producers strong (CNQ, ENB), carbon market exit removes regulatory headwind.

💡 One-liner takeaway: Global trade tensions escalating (China-EU, US-Canada), energy sector showing strength while tech faces headwinds, and cost-cutting themes dominating (Amazon, Sour Puss) = late-cycle behavior.

🎯 Bottom Line

Market direction: SPY tests $663 support in next 3 days on coued tech weakness, then bounces 2-3% as oversold conditions reverse. QQQ likely underperforms until sector rotation stabilizes. Top picks: META at $608-$615 (RSI 29.26 = gift) and AMD at $246-$250 (raised targets sold on low volume = trap). Biggest risk: If SPY breaks $663, we cascade to $640 and invalidate the bounce thesis - set tight stops. Action today: Build 50% positions in META and AMD here, save 50% for lower entries if we flush tomorrow. Avoid TSLA/GOOGL/IBM until charts repair.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Market analysis for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.

#Kryptunes | Daily Market Intelligence | Toronto"

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