Oil Is Flat, but the Red Sea Front and 5.3% Yields Are Not

The market is treating Hormuz as a slowly healing supply problem, but the front line has quietly moved to Bab el-Mandeb, and yields, not oil, are carrying the risk.

On Monday, Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi-led air power said they retook the town of Dhubab, just north of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, plus the towns of Bab and Hadeid. The coalition says about 100 fighter jets supported the push. The Houthis answered by claiming missile and drone strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid airport and an Aramco-linked refinery at Rabigh, and by taking Turbah, a town linking Taiz to Aden. Those are claims from the parties, not independently verified outcomes.

Why does a Yemeni coastline matter for a Wall Street close? Because Saudi crude that cannot leave via Hormuz is being pushed toward the Red Sea, and Bab el-Mandeb is that route's narrow gate. It handles roughly 12% of global trade.

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