Hormuz Is Half-Open, and That Is Why Brent Sits at $102

The Strait of Hormuz is not fully closed and not meaningfully open, and that in-between state is what the market is pricing: Brent near $102 and the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.28%. The new development this weekend is not a deal. It is that Iran is enforcing its position with force while the G7 tries to cover the gap with stockpiles.

Over the weekend, at least two more tankers were struck near Iran and Oman. One was hit by an unknown projectile about four nautical miles east of Oman on Saturday. Another took engine-room damage inside the strait on Sunday. Chinese state broadcaster CGTN, citing media reports, counted seven tankers hit by the IRGC in five days. I could not verify that count, so treat it as a claim.

On Sunday, Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait will not reopen until Iran's seven conditions are met. These reportedly include an end to the US naval blockade, relief from oil sanctions and the release of frozen assets. Those are political demands, not shipping logistics, so I don't expect a quick technical fix.

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